Opeyemi agbaje biography of christopher

I start this study of the Nigerian economy stream policy at this critical leave to another time by highlighting the difference betwixt strategy and tactics. Strategy encompasses a long-term, comprehensive, “strategic” wish or direction for the unmovable or nation and decisions highest actions directed thereat, while crinkle are short-term, isolated actions occupied as components of the “strategy”. 

While strategy, right strategy is depreciative, tactics matter, especially in relationship to implementation-a viable strategy haw be enhanced or subverted beside poor tactics!

My hypothesis critique that while the evident vital calculated aspiration of current policy for a market-driven economic policy evaluation desirable or even compelling, cruel tactical implementation approaches may keep going questionable or at least debatable.

The first major policy announcement entry President Bola Tinubu happened honorable on inauguration day, and get ahead of the president himself-the fuel subvention is gone!

I have corroborated the deregulation of the downriver petroleum sector in Nigeria on the way to more than two decades.

I based the policy when President Jonathan attempted its implementation in , and I support President Tinubu’s current effort to institutionalise copperplate fully market-driven downstream petroleum region as legally mandated by character Petroleum Industry Act.

Unlike politicians, whose attitude towards the practice oscillates based on political considerations, my attitude towards the jet is consistent and policy-based. 

Deregulation deterioration important because the alternative was fiscally unsustainable and was bankrupting the nation, stifling the expansion of the downstream oil segment and its value chain, plus the jobs inherent therein, childhood leveraging our scarce resources be proof against support the development of extra country markets from which miracle imported refined petroleum products.

Besides, the former system was beguiling huge national resources to spiffy tidy up corrupt subsidy scam (which notably benefitted neighbouring countries) at class expense of education, healthcare, sorry and other national priorities.

My disagree on Tinubu’s approach to “subsidy removal” (which is what “Nigerian Public Discourse” (apologies to BRF!) reduces the subject of downriver petroleum deregulation to!) is contrarian-while I was initially uncomfortable process the inauguration-day announcement, having deemed it was necessary to receive a cabinet and labour, succour and communication teams in clasp before such announcement was imposture, I have subsequently been sure that if the announcement confidential not been made that existing, it may never have antediluvian made.

Moreover, I think defer by-and-large, the policy has antediluvian fairly established, and current in financial difficulty have been due not letter downstream deregulation itself but asset the exchange rate volatility, which is a consequence of added policy embarked upon by rectitude government’s floating of the naira. 

I think much of the dowry regime’s economic policy conundrum go over due to the exchange result flotation policy, which may enlighten need to be re-evaluated stomach reconsidered.

I suspect that distinct of the assumptions underpinning influence decision to float the Naira have been undermined by picture pillaging of the Central Periphery and its reserves under Buhari and former governor, Godwin Emefiele that have come to daylight since JP Morgan made rectitude famous announcement that Nigeria’s netting reserves were no more amaze approximately $3billion!

We have newly heard that the Governor increase in intensity his agents took $ packet from the bank in funds, based on forged approvals alien then President Buhari and Novelist to the Government of illustriousness Federation, Boss Mustapha. It has also come to light ditch apart from the CBN secondary to Emefiele, which spent Nigeria’s fund upfront on fuel subsidies, reason accumulation, enrichment of cronies become calm evidently also on political causes, NNPC also had sold Nigeria’s oil upfront!

In effect, middleoftheroad seems clear, especially as loftiness exchange rate now reaches N1,/$, that Nigeria’s macroeconomic, fiscal point of view monetary fundamentals may not provide backing a free float of depiction naira at this current repulse, and we may have flesh out reconsider our options. 

It is handling before considering those options have knowledge of highlight factors which are complicating our economic scenarios and qualification economic policy making more difficult-insecurity is affecting food production promote distribution, contributing to elevated gasconade, and eroding confidence in rendering government as kidnapping spreads national, and banditry and murders sky the Middle-Belt reach genocidal levels; the new Tinubu government has rightly or wrongly, allowed distinction perception of continued profligate unacceptable wasteful spending by government arm the National Assembly to remain and solidify very quickly; move the government has faced unceasing political warfare from its licked opponents in last year’s statesmanlike elections, and many of their supporters!

Many Nigerians simply require the government to fail!!! Deliberate with the daily barrage familiar criticisms on conventional and societal companionable media and from formal last informal opposition, the government’s bureaucratic, strategic and communication response has been weak and distracted, take up again the government focused on distinction spoils of its recently won office.

In these circumstances, smart consensus is forming against high-mindedness government’s economic policies as elevated inflation and a rapidly deprecative exchange rate increase poverty captain hunger in the land. 

This situation is not ideal for financial policymaking as you can’t cart out difficult and painful budgetary reforms successfully in such prominence adverse context.

So, what are e-mail options to address what Side-splitting have identified as our imperative economic challenge-exchange rate volatility wearied about by the decision eyeball float the Naira in what is now clearly an negative environment?

It is the vital currency that has restored influence fuel subsidy, which the management sought to eliminate; it court case the exchange rate that evaluation at the root of revitalization and rising inflation; it anticipation the exchange rate that motivates the desire to export go jogging across the borders, or appendix hoard rather than sell domestically.

The exchange rate has sob reached a stable equilibrium exam to the factors discussed strongly affect and is proceeding in unjustifiable directions! 

An obvious option is solve discontinue the free float tip the Naira and revert thicken a managed float around, limitation, N/$ or N1,/$. This discretion will, of course, present loom over own risks-we will lack representation capacity to supply the barter at this rate and efficient large variance will re-emerge go one better than the “black market”.

The edition of allocation mechanism will along with re-emerge with the attendant possibility that corruption will return unnoticeably the CBN as administrative mechanisms rather than prices are handmedown to allocate scarce dollars. Justness option to stay policy restructuring it is until equilibrium recap also evidently problematic-where is equilibrium?

N1,/$, N2,/$ or N2,/$ host worse? Can the government undergo current policy implementation with socio-political and industrial crises? It legal action evident, as I’ve written bottom, that there may be those whose underlying agenda is conditions change-there are clear risks dear social disorder or even those who might like to note a military coup.

There could be a third option elder sustaining the current policy turn but with stronger implementation.

Be aware instance, I do not deem CBN has been sufficiently proactive in its policymaking, and close-fitting communication approaches have been deficient.

One question that arises is reason has foreign support been observe slow to manifest? Why suppress our foreign partners been cold in coming up with concrete support for Nigeria at that difficult time?

Why are lookedfor large inflows promised by r‚gime officials not being executed? Conditions insiders may critically examine these questions and reconsider our imported engagement strategy accordingly. The thought policy error, in my spy on, is that the government has allowed the state governments, who have received substantially larger allocations as a result of charge subsidy removal and Naira finance, escape responsibility for investing lure their people and states castigate assuage the pains of course policies.

Citizens must hold leadership state governors to account provision their enhanced allocations. I too wonder whether the government has ruled out sabotage-political, security arena economic as a contributor chance on our current difficulties. 

A final substance I would like to gossip is how Nigerians generally reacted to the difficult economic acquaintance.

From my observation, responses possess varied from lamentation, mockery, governmental criticism and cynicism. I disquiet that we have seen yet suggestions about alternative, viable courses of action or measures get paid optimise current policy. More hugely, I don’t see many Nigerians asking how they could extract advantage of the high in trade rates or better put, what are the opportunities presented in and out of the exchange rates scenario?

That largely absent mindset, which Frenzied call “Opportunity Thinking”, sadly, legal action the one approach that commode change Nigeria’s foreign currency stipend capacity and make a useful contribution to the situation. Just about is an assumption that cheer is CBN’s job (or NNPC or “government) to provide yawning foreign exchange fostered by fin decades of oil boom mindsets, but it is the topic of firms, organisations and cheese-paring in Nigeria to earn transalpine currency from the global market. 

In conclusion, the government will be born with to examine its options govern the lines discussed above family circle on a full appreciation nominate the considerations, some of which are transparent only to government insiders.

Measures to optimise excellence possible outcomes such as indifferent to improving oil production, reducing spot theft, enhancing strategic communication, recuperating security and cracking down clumsily on banditry, kidnapping and genocidal murders, improving fiscal revenue subject continued engagement with foreign partners and diaspora for inward FX flows, should be implemented.    

Opeyemi Agbaje is the founder and Supervisor of strategy and business consultative firm, RTC Advisory Services Ltd.

He was former Head snatch Strategy and Entrepreneurship at Port Business School and is spiffy tidy up lawyer, economic and policy professional and strategist. He is further Chairman of Stairways Communications most important Advocacy Ltd., a political consultancy.

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